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2009 Economic Outlook

Tripoint Mortgage Group, Inc. is pleased to present our annual forecast

By Kenneth F. Castro

Last year's forecast had anticipated some very odd happenings...but nothing to the extent of how the actual story unfolded, in what became a year of making history.

How did we do on our forecast last year?

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was confident that we were not heading into a recession and a down market . . . and we correctly disagreed.
  • We saw Stocks heading lower . . . and they did, actually to a much larger extent than we had expected. But our one Stock selection for last year did quite well, more than doubling in a short period of time.
  • We saw 2008 as being a year of high volatility . . . and that turned out to be an understatement.
  • We said the Fed would cut . . . but we were wrong as to the extent of those cuts, brought on by the financial crisis, also something we did not foresee.
  • We saw $4/gallon gasoline over the summer, and while many disagreed, our target price was correct.
  • We did well with our forecast for the Dollar and Gold prices, as well as how we anticipated the housing market to fare.
  • Most importantly, and for more than 11 months during 2008, our rate forecast was right on target, with the last few weeks seeing mortgage rates decline further than we had predicted at this time last year.

What next? As we enter 2009, here's what our crystal ball is showing us.

The economy will have a tough go once again during the coming year. But we do see things as being better than during 2008, with more optimism in the air by this time next year.

The Fed and the Treasury have and will continue to add lots of stimulus to our economy. It will just take some time for the "medicine" to work its way through the system. After hogging the spotlight with many different moves, we expect the Fed to be on hold with their interest rate policy throughout the majority of 2009. After all, there's no room to cut further, and we don't see a hike until economic conditions show signs of improvement.....


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Ken, I want to thank you for once again coming thru for me, this HELOC will make my life so much easier...you don't know what a relief it is for me not to have to concern myself with the all those monthly payments.

Frank Arroyo

Garden Grove, CA